pinoar

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2024 Season Stats

0.033926

Relative Brier Score

45

Forecasts

1

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 17 17 69 45 69
Comments 4 4 20 4 20
Questions Forecasted 12 12 16 16 16
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 6 1 6
 Definitions
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
pinoar made their 6th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
May 16, 2024 to Nov 16, 2024
100% (0%)
No
May 16, 2024 to Nov 16, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
pinoar made their 5th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
2% (0%)
Kuwait
2% (0%)
Oman
2% (0%)
Qatar
2% (0%)
Saudi Arabia
2% (0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Iran continues to see value in staying below the threshold of enrichment deemed necessary for a nuclear weapon.  It gains political and economic leverage  by staying below the threshold while avoiding a military attack on its facilities.

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Why might you be wrong?

Iran could decide to enrich to 90% if it calculated that it such a step would not provoke an immediate attack on its nuclear facilities,  could enhance its political and economic leverage, and would provide a measure of deterrence against a potential future attack.

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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Show more
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
pinoar made their 5th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
May 16, 2024 to Nov 16, 2024
100% (0%)
No
May 16, 2024 to Nov 16, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Show more
New Prediction
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
pinoar made their 4th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
2% (0%)
Kuwait
2% (0%)
Oman
2% (0%)
Qatar
2% (0%)
Saudi Arabia
2% (0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Show more
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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