Forecasted Questions
Will any private messages obtained in the July 15, 2020 Twitter hack be leaked to the public by November 2, 2020?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 30, 2020 12:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Oct 30, 2020 12:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 20, 2020 08:30AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Aug 20, 2020 08:30AM UTC
(3 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | Answer was incorrect | |||
Will China add a U.S. company to its Unreliable Entities List by November 2, 2020?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 28, 2020 01:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Oct 28, 2020 01:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2020 12:26AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Sep 30, 2020 12:26AM UTC
(3 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | Answer was incorrect | |||
Will the United States add SMIC to the Entity List by October 14, 2020?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 15, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Oct 15, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2020 12:27AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Sep 30, 2020 12:27AM UTC
(3 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | Answer was incorrect | |||
How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Apr 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 19, 2020 04:36AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Dec 19, 2020 04:36AM UTC
(3 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zero | Answer was correct | |||
| One | Answer was incorrect | |||
| Two or more | Answer was incorrect | |||
When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
May 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
May 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 19, 2020 04:38AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Dec 19, 2020 04:38AM UTC
(3 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before February 17, 2021 | Answer was incorrect | |||
| Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive | Answer was incorrect | |||
| After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021 | Answer was incorrect | |||
| After November 17, 2021 | Answer was correct | |||
Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Jul 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 25, 2021 02:25PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Feb 25, 2021 02:25PM UTC
(3 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | Answer was incorrect | |||
What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2022?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2021 10:25PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Sep 30, 2021 10:25PM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than $25 billion | Answer was incorrect | |||
| More than $25 billion but less than or equal to $35 billion | Answer was incorrect | |||
| Between $35 billion and $45 billion, inclusive | Answer was correct | |||
| Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive | Answer was incorrect | |||
| More than $55 billion | Answer was incorrect | |||