Forecasted Questions
[Experimental] Did COVID-19 originate in a lab in Wuhan, China?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2021 10:13PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Sep 27, 2021 10:13PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 24% | 35% | -11% | +0% |
How will the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 09, 2021 02:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Oct 09, 2021 02:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2022?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Nov 15, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Nov 15, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 07, 2021 05:51PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Nov 07, 2021 05:51PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 2% | 10% | 7% | +3% | +0% |
Between 2% and 4%, inclusive | 35% | 23% | +12% | +0% |
More than 4% but less than or equal to 6% | 35% | 33% | +2% | +0% |
More than 6% but less than or equal to 8% | 15% | 21% | -6% | +0% |
More than 8% | 5% | 16% | -11% | +0% |
How politically polarized will U.S. citizens be in 2024?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 12, 2021 07:51PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Dec 12, 2021 07:51PM UTC
(2 years ago)
How will annual money raised by private U.S. tech companies change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 13, 2022 12:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 13, 2022 12:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2021 03:39PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Dec 31, 2021 03:39PM UTC
(2 years ago)
What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?
Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts
14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2021 03:43PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Dec 31, 2021 03:43PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than -0.25 | 2% | 14% | -12% | +0% |
Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive | 45% | 31% | +14% | +0% |
More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25 | 45% | 33% | +12% | +0% |
More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5 | 7% | 17% | -10% | 0% |
More than 0.5 | 1% | 4% | -3% | +0% |
How will the percentage of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2022 12:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 11, 2022 12:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2021 03:43PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Dec 31, 2021 03:43PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Which tech company will be the first to reach a market cap of $5 trillion?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 12, 2022 02:55PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 12, 2022 02:55PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Apple | 48% | 48% | +0% | +13% |
Microsoft | 20% | 22% | -2% | +3% |
Alphabet (Google) | 15% | 13% | +2% | -3% |
Amazon | 8% | 10% | -2% | -6% |
Tesla | 5% | 3% | +2% | -3% |
Meta (Facebook) | 2% | 1% | +1% | -3% |
Other | 2% | 2% | +0% | -1% |
What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2022?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 13, 2022 06:12PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Mar 13, 2022 06:12PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 14% | 0% | 3% | -3% | -1% |
Between 14% and 16%, inclusive | 7% | 12% | -5% | -3% |
More than 16% but less than or equal to 18% | 35% | 31% | +4% | -5% |
More than 18% but less than or equal to 20% | 43% | 40% | +3% | +5% |
More than 20% | 15% | 14% | +1% | +3% |
How will the percentage of U.S residents who are concerned about how the government uses their data change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 13, 2022 06:13PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Mar 13, 2022 06:13PM UTC
(2 years ago)