Forecasted Questions
[Experimental] Did COVID-19 originate in a lab in Wuhan, China?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 28, 2021 08:14AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Sep 28, 2021 08:14AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 5% | 35% | -30% | +0% |
How will the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2021 09:28PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Sep 29, 2021 09:28PM UTC
(2 years ago)
What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2022?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Nov 15, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Nov 15, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 06, 2021 10:32PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Nov 06, 2021 10:32PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 2% | 8% | 7% | +1% | +0% |
Between 2% and 4%, inclusive | 27% | 23% | +4% | +0% |
More than 4% but less than or equal to 6% | 35% | 33% | +2% | +0% |
More than 6% but less than or equal to 8% | 23% | 21% | +2% | +0% |
More than 8% | 7% | 16% | -9% | +0% |
What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 25, 2021 11:02AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Nov 25, 2021 11:02AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than -0.25 | 5% | 14% | -9% | -1% |
Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive | 30% | 31% | -1% | -1% |
More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25 | 40% | 33% | +7% | +2% |
More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5 | 23% | 17% | +6% | +0% |
More than 0.5 | 2% | 4% | -2% | +0% |
How will the percentage of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2022 12:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 11, 2022 12:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 11, 2021 12:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Dec 11, 2021 12:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
How will annual money raised by private U.S. tech companies change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 13, 2022 12:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 13, 2022 12:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 01, 2022 10:52AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 01, 2022 10:52AM UTC
(2 years ago)
What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2022?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 04, 2022 01:47AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Mar 04, 2022 01:47AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 14% | 1% | 3% | -2% | -1% |
Between 14% and 16%, inclusive | 8% | 12% | -4% | -2% |
More than 16% but less than or equal to 18% | 42% | 31% | +11% | -4% |
More than 18% but less than or equal to 20% | 39% | 40% | -1% | +4% |
More than 20% | 10% | 14% | -4% | +3% |
How will annual money raised by U.S. tech startups change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 04, 2022 01:48AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Mar 04, 2022 01:48AM UTC
(2 years ago)
How will the percentage of SMIC revenue from 28 nm chips or smaller change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 04, 2022 01:50AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Mar 04, 2022 01:50AM UTC
(2 years ago)
How will the number of Defense Innovation Unit transitions change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 02, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 02, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 04, 2022 01:51AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Mar 04, 2022 01:51AM UTC
(2 years ago)