PabloAMC

Pablo Moreno
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Forecasted Questions

[Experimental] Did COVID-19 originate in a lab in Wuhan, China?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 28, 2021 08:14AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 5% 35%

How will the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2021 09:28PM UTC
(2 years ago)

What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2022?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Nov 15, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 06, 2021 10:32PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 2% 8% 7%
Between 2% and 4%, inclusive 27% 23%
More than 4% but less than or equal to 6% 35% 33%
More than 6% but less than or equal to 8% 23% 21%
More than 8% 7% 16%

What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 25, 2021 11:02AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than -0.25 5% 14%
Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive 30% 31%
More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25 40% 33%
More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5 23% 17%
More than 0.5 2% 4%

How will the percentage of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2022 12:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 11, 2021 12:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)

How will annual money raised by private U.S. tech companies change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 13, 2022 12:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 01, 2022 10:52AM UTC
(2 years ago)

What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2022?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 04, 2022 01:47AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 14% 1% 3%
Between 14% and 16%, inclusive 8% 12%
More than 16% but less than or equal to 18% 42% 31%
More than 18% but less than or equal to 20% 39% 40%
More than 20% 10% 14%

How will annual money raised by U.S. tech startups change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 04, 2022 01:48AM UTC
(2 years ago)

How will the percentage of SMIC revenue from 28 nm chips or smaller change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 04, 2022 01:50AM UTC
(2 years ago)

How will the number of Defense Innovation Unit transitions change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 02, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 04, 2022 01:51AM UTC
(2 years ago)
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