The passing of time until the resolution period. Taking this down 2% more. He is consistently eliminating any threats to his power (at least publicly), so his only real meaningful threat is his own health and well being.
0.000613
Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 49 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 17 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-2%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There are larger internal threats not known in open source news, or some sort of reaction to Navalny's death or the threats against other activists triggers broad discontent in sectors able to actually remove Putin. There were also rumors of his health deteriorating, he is getting older and may be susceptible to a radical health event.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
With successful attack on the British-registered cargo ship, the timeline most likely got pushed out further for any normalization of shipping routes by BP or Shell, and almost certainly not in the next 40 days (from the time of this forecast.)
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
65%
Yes
35%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Staying north of 50% given the long timeframe of this question. Cautiously optimistic the war will end with a brokered ceasefire before the required date because of increasing external pressure and a more complicated domestic picture of Israeli support for the effort.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Israel could unilaterally declare it has achieved its objectives which would not qualify as a ceasefire under the resolution criteria.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 9, 2024 06:54PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7%
Yes
Feb 9, 2024 to Mar 9, 2024
93%
No
Feb 9, 2024 to Mar 9, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
- Fighting has been very localized so far and there aren't any signals anyone wants this to broaden.
- Hezbollah has other incentives for not wanting to induce a larger conflict with Israel
- Iran, Hezbollah's backers have their own incentives not to support an escalation, including a nascent relationship with Saudi Arabia
Files
Why might you be wrong?
- Accidental escalation
- Netanyahu overreaching
- Fallout of American support for Israel creates the perception of a broader vulnerability
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(-2%)
Yes
92%
(+2%)
No
Lowering probability slightly in lieu of current events and time remaining for this to happen.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Status quo departure would be significant, and a major isolating effect on the Iranian government so the argument is strong to continue to stay in the deal - even if they hamstring it by kicking out inspectors, etc.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Trump or another hard right candidate being on the path to election in 2024 with complementary saber rattling might force the hand of Iranian politics internally to pull out of the deal and not self-subject themselves to any current limitations.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Dynamics have not changed, lowering again for time passing.