Lowering the probability since the current conflicts do not seem to evolve into war immediately
0.016947
Relative Brier Score
3
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 43 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 17 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 20, 2024 02:46AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(-3%)
Yes
Feb 20, 2024 to Mar 20, 2024
95%
(+3%)
No
Feb 20, 2024 to Mar 20, 2024
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 28, 2024 03:23PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8%
Yes
Jan 28, 2024 to Feb 28, 2024
92%
No
Jan 28, 2024 to Feb 28, 2024
Israel told Washington in late December that if a long-term border agreement cannot be reached with Lebanon over the next several weeks, according to a Western diplomat and three Lebanese officials, Israel will escalate its fight with Hezbollah — a scenario the Biden administration and European countries have tried strenuously to avoid.
Reference:
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
(0%)
Yes
20%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
Yes
20%
No
Why do you think you're right?
While India successfully landed a spacecraft near the moon's south pole in August, there were earlier failures with Russia's Luna-25 and the privately-funded Hakuto-R moon missions. Multiple moon missions, including those by private companies like Peregrine Mission 1 and Nova-C IM-1, are planned for 2023.
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Why might you be wrong?
The success of these missions remains uncertain, and there are also delays, such as the postponement of Japan's "Moon Sniper" launch.
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