Only 1 day left
0.321573
Relative Brier Score
14
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 1 | 15 | 4 | 44 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 18 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 20, 2024 02:46AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(-3%)
Yes
Feb 20, 2024 to Mar 20, 2024
95%
(+3%)
No
Feb 20, 2024 to Mar 20, 2024
Lowering the probability since the current conflicts do not seem to evolve into war immediately
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 28, 2024 03:23PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8%
Yes
Jan 28, 2024 to Feb 28, 2024
92%
No
Jan 28, 2024 to Feb 28, 2024
Israel told Washington in late December that if a long-term border agreement cannot be reached with Lebanon over the next several weeks, according to a Western diplomat and three Lebanese officials, Israel will escalate its fight with Hezbollah — a scenario the Biden administration and European countries have tried strenuously to avoid.
Reference:
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
(0%)
Yes
20%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Update my forecast due to time