Forecasted Questions
[Experimental] Did COVID-19 originate in a lab in Wuhan, China?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 23, 2021 09:33PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Aug 23, 2021 09:33PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 77% | 35% | +42% | -7% |
What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2022?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Nov 15, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Nov 15, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 06, 2021 07:49PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Oct 06, 2021 07:49PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 2% | 10% | 7% | +3% | -1% |
Between 2% and 4%, inclusive | 16% | 23% | -7% | -1% |
More than 4% but less than or equal to 6% | 25% | 33% | -8% | -1% |
More than 6% but less than or equal to 8% | 29% | 21% | +8% | +0% |
More than 8% | 20% | 16% | +4% | +3% |
How will the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 06, 2021 07:49PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Oct 06, 2021 07:49PM UTC
(2 years ago)
How will the percentage of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2022 12:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 11, 2022 12:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2021 07:58PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Dec 01, 2021 07:58PM UTC
(2 years ago)
What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2021 08:02PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Dec 01, 2021 08:02PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than -0.25 | 9% | 14% | -5% | +0% |
Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive | 20% | 31% | -11% | +0% |
More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25 | 35% | 33% | +2% | +1% |
More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5 | 25% | 17% | +8% | +0% |
More than 0.5 | 11% | 4% | +7% | +0% |
How politically polarized will U.S. citizens be in 2024?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2021 08:02PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Dec 01, 2021 08:02PM UTC
(2 years ago)
How will annual money raised by private U.S. tech companies change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 13, 2022 12:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 13, 2022 12:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 12, 2022 09:03PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 12, 2022 09:03PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Which tech company will be the first to reach a market cap of $5 trillion?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 20, 2022 11:54PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 20, 2022 11:54PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Apple | 31% | 48% | -17% | +11% |
Microsoft | 22% | 22% | +0% | +3% |
Alphabet (Google) | 18% | 13% | +5% | -3% |
Amazon | 14% | 10% | +4% | -5% |
Tesla | 7% | 3% | +4% | -3% |
Meta (Facebook) | 5% | 1% | +4% | -2% |
Other | 3% | 2% | +1% | -1% |
How will the number of Defense Innovation Unit transitions change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 02, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 02, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 06, 2022 01:45AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Mar 06, 2022 01:45AM UTC
(2 years ago)
What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2022?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 18, 2022 08:33PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Mar 18, 2022 08:33PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 14% | 5% | 3% | +2% | -1% |
Between 14% and 16%, inclusive | 18% | 12% | +6% | -3% |
More than 16% but less than or equal to 18% | 31% | 31% | +0% | -5% |
More than 18% but less than or equal to 20% | 31% | 40% | -9% | +6% |
More than 20% | 15% | 14% | +1% | +3% |