July 21, 2022


New question on the next generation of AI

What happens when computer chips behave the way our brains do? How will the artificial intelligence (AI) that uses those chips evolve to do more human-like things? Our newest forecast question signals the kind of innovation in microelectronics that help us understand the next generation of AI. Tell us what you think:
Which of the following companies will announce a new neuromorphic chip or system by 30 June 2023?
INFER is predicting a 51% chance that none of the companies listed will announce a chip by then, but BrainChip is among the most likely (16% chance). 
Make a forecast


Save the Date: Fireside Chat on Aug. 30th

U.S. Government stakeholders have asked us to forecast the national security implications of synthetic biology. INFER will be launching this topic in late August alongside a Fireside Chat to learn more about major issues in the field. 

+ Know of a group that's into synthetic biology?
We have budgeted the ability to sponsor clubs or other groups with an emphasis on synthetic biology. If you are part of one or would like to introduce us, please send an email to [email protected]. We also have a few Pro Forecaster spots reserved for anyone who can demonstrate experience in this field. 


Are you ready for a challenge?

+ 3-Week Streak 
Our first of two new challenges asks you to forecast on any topic once per week for at least three of the four weeks between July 18th and August 15th, 2022. Earn the badge, and you'll be entered for a drawing to win $250. 
+ Rockstar Rookie
Our second new challenge is for INFER rookies! If you've never forecasted on INFER before and  make five forecasts in July and August, you'll earn the badge and be entered for a drawing worth $500.
+ Pro Forecaster Starter 
We will be selecting our Pro Starters in early August. These potential future Pros will be selected for their accuracy and their engagement from Feb 1st to July 31st, 2022. The top five forecasters will earn up to $1,000. 
See all challenge details


Forecaster special shoutouts

+ FlashCast Thursday winners
Congrats to the two winners of the $250 FlashCast Thursday drawing from June 30th: @Paul_Rowan and @bcs53!

(Did you see? Today, INFER is running another FlashCast Thursday! Go ahead and make a few forecasts here...)
+ Badge of Honor Challenge winners
The three winners of the $500 drawing for the Badge of Honor challenge are @JonathanMann, @efosong, and @Soren! Congrats to all 65 forecasters who earned their Badges of Honor.


On draft at The Pub

See the current staff picks from our blog, The Pub:
+ Topic brief: The global AI race
In our latest "Topic brief," we go into the basics of what the U.S., the EU, and China are doing in the AI sphere and provide some resources to help you forecast the Global AI Race topic.
+ Meet our community mentors
You may recognize Dawna Countant (@DKC) and Ryan Beck (@RyanBeck) from your forecasting. For the past few months, they've acted as community mentors, and now's your chance to meet them! Check out the whole article for Ryan's tips on improving your forecasting.
+ Check out new site features
Between pre-mortems and new ways to compare your accuracy score to others, INFER continues releasing new features to assist in your forecasting. Read more about these new features here.
Check out more posts


Final countdown for the Effective Altruism College Tournament!

With only a few days left in July, it's time for teams participating in the EA Tournament to get in your final forecasts for your chance at final rewards, including honorable mention rewards for most active teams and individuals. Winners will be announced in the first week of August. 


Future headlines...

Based on our latest forecasting data, INFER is predicting the following major headlines. How do these compare to your forecasts?
Do you have friends or colleagues interested in joining INFER?
They can sign up here. For any questions, drop us a line.

Thank you for reading!
The INFER Team
Copyright © 2022
INFER is a forecasting program run by the Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security (ARLIS) at the University of Maryland and Cultivate Labs. Funding is provided by Open Philanthropy
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