On 28 February 2023, how many states will be following the California emissions standard banning the sale of new emissions-producing vehicles by 2035?

Started Sep 08, 2022 07:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 28, 2023 05:00PM UTC

In their ongoing effort to reduce the impacts of climate change, last month the California Air Resources Board (CARB) approved Advanced Clean Cars II which requires that all new passenger cars and trucks sold in the state to be electric, hybrid, or otherwise zero emission (New York Times, CARB). California is the only state that can implement emissions standards that are more stringent than federal requirements (CARB, Environmental Protection Agency). Other states can opt to follow federal guidelines or California guidelines, and a number of other states are moving to adopt these more stringent standards (Fox Business, The Hill). Such moves are contentious and California’s new standards are expected to be challenged in court (New York Times, The Hill).  

This question will be resolved by counting the total number of states that have the 2035 target that California has implemented in place on 28 February 2023. If any state’s emissions-producing vehicle ban is pending appeal on 28 February 2023, that state’s ban will still count toward the overall total.  

Question clarification
Issued on 12/09/22 06:40pm
If on 28 February 2023, a state's relevant regulatory or legislative body has approved the adoption of the standards laid out in CARB's Advanced Clean Cars II regulations, that state will count as "following the California emissions standard" regardless of the status of any pending waivers, lawsuits, or legal challenges.
Issued on 02/08/23 10:57pm
A state following California's previous zero-emission vehicles regulations is not enough in and of itself to conclude that they will follow the new standards set in Advanced Clean Cars II. To be considered as "following the California emissions standard", a state must either affirm that they will follow the new standards banning the sale of emissions-producing vehicles or have legislation or regulations in place stating that they will automatically adopt updates to California's emissions standard. California itself will not be included in the tally of states that have adopted the new standard.
Issued on 02/15/23 04:41pm
State regulations themselves do not need to specifically mention California to count towards resolution, so long as the regulations ban the sale of new emissions-producing vehicles by 2035.
Resolution Notes

6 states had adopted California's ban on emissions producing vehicles as of 28 Feb 2023: Oregon, Washington, Vermont, Virginia, New York, and Massachusetts.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 5 13%
Between 5 and 11, inclusive 83%
Between 12 and 17, inclusive 3%
More than or equal to 18 0%

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Number of Forecasters 75
Average for questions older than 6 months: 57
Number of Forecasts 268
Average for questions older than 6 months: 193
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

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