Will Microsoft's AI-powered “new Bing” be available to the public by 30 April 2023?

Started Feb 23, 2023 08:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 19, 2023 04:00AM UTC

On 7 February 2023, Microsoft announced the new Bing, an updated version of its Bing search engine with AI-powered search, answer, and chat capabilities (The Verge). The new Bing is powered by an OpenAI large language model, which Microsoft claims makes it “more powerful than ChatGPT” (ZDNET). With “multiple millions” on the waitlist, Microsoft is in the process of scaling access to the new Bing, but many have raised concerns about the technology giving wrong answers and disinformation (Twitter, Vice, Microsoft). 
 
The new Bing is currently in limited preview and only available through a waitlist. This question will resolve “Yes” if Microsoft makes it fully open to the public without a waitlist on or before 30 April 2023. If Microsoft releases “the new Bing” to the public, with some, but not all, of the features available in the limited preview, this question will still resolve “Yes”.  

Question clarification
Issued on 02/27/23 10:42pm
The new Bing does not necessarily have to be accessible in every country upon release for this question to resolve "yes". For example, if Microsoft releases the new Bing to users in the United States, this question would still resolve "yes" provided that the new Bing is otherwise publicly available to users in the U.S.
Issued on 03/03/23 03:11pm
If the new Bing is available to the public, but requires the use of a Microsoft account or platform to access it (e.g., Windows or Microsoft Edge), this question will resolve "yes".
Issued on 03/24/23 07:44pm
While access to the new Bing has been accelerated for many, some users have reported not getting access. Additionally, Microsoft is still encouraging users to sign up for the waitlist, and says that they are “adding more people every day”. Consequently, this question will remain open. If Bing removes the waitlist requirement to access the new Bing, this question will resolve “Yes” regardless of whether or not Microsoft refers to the new Bing as as being in preview.
Resolution Notes

Although Microsoft still describes the sign-up process for the new Bing preview as a waitlist, access is immediate for nearly all who join. The INFER team interprets this to mean that the waitlist has effectively been removed, as shown by Microsoft’s decision on 19 March 2023 to change the primary call to action on bing.com/new from “Join the Waitlist” to “Sign in to chat”. While some accounts reported not receiving access to the new Bing, Microsoft has made efforts to ensure access where possible, and these reports typically appear to be caused by issues such as not having an age on their account, being banned from Microsoft rewards, or other technical bugs (e.g., a Bing VP, a software engineer on Bing's waitlist team, and a Microsoft Community agent). In addition, these reports appear to be in the strong minority and have decreased significantly in number.

The INFER team has been monitoring this situation, and while we acknowledge that there hasn't been official confirmation from Microsoft and the situation isn't clear cut, it is our judgment that the above constitutes the new Bing "being available to the public”, despite still being in preview. Forecasts made on or after 19 March 2023 will not impact your score.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 62.16%
No 37.84%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 114
Average for questions older than 6 months: 58
Number of Forecasts 267
Average for questions older than 6 months: 201
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.621
2.
-0.606
3.
-0.581
4.
-0.527
5.
-0.496

Consensus Trend

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