Will the value of 1 US Dollar equal or exceed 800,000 Iranian Rial on the open market (or 80,000 Toman, as reported on Bonbast) before 1 September 2023?
Started
Apr 14, 2023 08:30PM UTC
Closed Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
Closed Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
Seasons
The Iranian economy has been taking a downturn, due in part to continued U.S. sanctions and civil unrest (Reuters, WSJ).
The Iranian Rial has an official exchange rate subsidized by the Iranian Central Bank, but the open market rate moves freely and more accurately reflects the price paid throughout the country (Al Jazeera).
This question will resolve “Yes” if the price of 1 USD on Bonbast reaches or exceeds 800,000 before 1 September 2023. Note that Bonbast reports prices in Iranian Toman, which equal 10 Rial, so a price of 800,000 Rial for 1 USD would be displayed as 80,000 on Bonbast.
Question clarification
Issued on 04/19/23 02:45pm
Please note that this question asks about the open market exchange rate, not the official rate. The open market rate is reported on Bonbast.com and will be used to resolve this question.
Many currency exchange sites report the official rate, which is subsidized by the Central Bank of Iran to keep it around 42,000 IRR to 1 USD. The open market rate is the rate used in most commercial transactions and more accurately represents Iran’s current economic climate.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.19% | |
| No | 99.81% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 45 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 59 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 188 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 208 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
