winkelby

im putting the odds of this fairly low. i dont have any data to determine a base case so this is all gut. recently there have been strikes but fatalities were, thankfully, well below this threshold. ukraines air defenses are pretty good and will get better with more US aid. also, it seems to me that russia is resourced constrained. yes they can fire missiles, but only so many in a given day  

speaking of resources , how in the world is russia building and deploying so many missiles? one would think their stockpile would be running low. id be interested to see their missile production and deployment data. i think i heard the commerce sec. saying on 60 minutes that the russians were stripping refrigerators, microwave ovens - anything with the right chips - to keep their war machine running.

maybe i need some clarification on this question. if this is about an attack specifically launched from iranian soil im putting the odds fairly low. my guess is the allies already have plans to take out the iranian nuke sites and a provocation -  like a strike launched from their soil - would result in the allies taking those sites out. and the Iranians know it. 

its all but a fait accompli

i really go tthis one wrong. still think there are some real stinkers in congress though.

this is a hot button issue for me. i have long suspected that trump was a "manchurian" president - with the russians holding compromat on him. yup - i believe there is a "pee-pee tape". 

that said, i also suspect that there are a number of congressmen and a handful of senators that have been compromised by foreign governments intelligence services. madison crawthorn was the canary in the coal mine - admitting to attending cocaine fueled sex parties (no doubt hosted and recorded), since then there have been other congress members who have come forward stating as much and airing their suspicions. where there is smoke there is fire. i think the rot runs deep - and sadly the FBI is reluctant to press the issue for fear of looking too political. not to mention the FBI got a big black eye with mcgonnagal affair  (sp?) - can you believe it? the head of FBI counter-intelligence  admitted that he was also working for the soviets!

therefore im putting funding for ukraine as a low probability event. israel has a better chance. 

so israel has been banging the drum on this one for years but after the iranian attack on israeli territory i see this event as far more likely than ever. 

im gonna be the contrarian here. i think the feud between iran and saudis is so big that thei iranian attack on israel might push the saudis closer to israel. 

it was iranian special forces that hijacked the ofer vessle - but my forecast still stands. this is what the houthis are being supported by iran for. 

this is why iran setthem up with weapons in the first place. its their raison de etre. 

IMO they are already at war with israel.