INFER Public

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 01, 2024 07:07PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	85%	55%	+30%	-6%
No	15%	45%	-30%	+6%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 14, 2024 01:15PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	95%	Apr 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025	Jul 14, 2024	10%	+85%	-5%
No	5%	Apr 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025	Jul 14, 2024	90%	-85%	+5%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 22, 2024 07:10PM UTC
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	12%	Apr 22, 2024 to Oct 22, 2024	May 22, 2024	4%	+8%	-1%
No	88%	Apr 22, 2024 to Oct 22, 2024	May 22, 2024	96%	-8%	+1%

Will 100 or more people be killed or injured in a Russian attack on the city of Kyiv before 1 June 2024?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 26, 2024 05:18PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	8%	2%	+6%	-2%
No	92%	98%	-6%	+2%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 03:58PM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024	May 30, 2024	10%	-5%	-1%
No	95%	Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024	May 30, 2024	90%	+5%	+1%

Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 03:59PM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	7%	4%	+3%	+0%
No	93%	96%	-3%	+0%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 01, 2024 03:08PM UTC
(14 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	May 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2024	Aug 1, 2024	0%	+1%	+0%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 01, 2024 03:08PM UTC
(14 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	4%	+1%	+0%
No	95%	96%	-1%	+0%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 01, 2024 03:10PM UTC
(14 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	2%	0%	+2%	0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	2%	1%	+1%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	4%	4%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	92%	95%	-3%	+0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 01, 2024 04:43PM UTC
(14 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	3%	1%	+2%	+0%
Latvia	2%	1%	+1%	+0%
Lithuania	4%	1%	+3%	+0%

winkelby

About: