Will Thailand hold a general election on or before 14 May 2023?

Started Apr 18, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed May 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC

Thailand is set to hold its second general election since the 2014 coup which overthrew the previous government (Foreign Policy). Since the 2019 election resulted in the unelected military leader, Prayut Chan-o-cha, remaining in power as Prime Minister with a civilian but pro-military government, this election is seen as a critical test for the future of democracy in both Thailand and the wider region (VOA). 


Last fall, Thailand’s Election commission set a tentative date for the election in May 2023, and in March, they confirmed the date as 14 May 2023 (Thai PBS). Thailand’s current prime minister, Prayut Chan-o-cha, dissolved parliament in March in preparation for the election (BBC, The Diplomat). 

Resolution Criteria:
The question will resolve once voting has started on election day (i.e., not early voting) or once the 14 May deadline has passed. A “yes” resolution does not require that all ballots be counted or that a winner be announced, only that the election be held. 

Additional Reading:
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 98.23%
No 1.77%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 57
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 102
Average for questions older than 6 months: 213
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.000188
3.
-0.000185
4.
-0.000185
5.
-0.000165

Consensus Trend

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