Will the composition of Israel's current governing coalition change before 1 July 2023?

Started Apr 18, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC

The Knesset, Israel’s Parliament, has 120 seats, so a party or coalition of parties must have at least 61 seats to govern. Governing coalitions have proven fragile in recent years, with five elections being called in four years (CNN). On 21 December 2022, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu formed the current governing coalition with 64 seats, 50 days after the most recent elections on 1 November 2022 (AP News). However, the government now faces nationwide strikes and protests as a result of their efforts to change Israel’s Supreme Court (CBS News). 
  
Resolution Criteria:
This question will resolve “Yes” if any of the following occur on or before 30 June 2023: 
  • Any parties or individuals join or leave the coalition 
  • The current government loses a vote of no confidence in the Knesset  
  • A new election is called 
  • The Knesset is dissolved 

Individual members of the Knesset vacating their seat would not be enough to resolve the question if they are replaced from the party list (see Section 43 of Israel’s Basic Law: The Knesset).
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.39%
No 99.61%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 50
Average for questions older than 6 months: 57
Number of Forecasts 199
Average for questions older than 6 months: 193
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.068
2.
-0.063
3.
-0.062
4.
-0.06
5.
-0.046

Consensus Trend

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