Passage of time.
0.012576
Relative Brier Score
26
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 7 | 274 | 26 | 336 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Questions Forecasted | 2 | 7 | 44 | 8 | 50 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 17 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(+5%)
Less than or equal to 499
0%
(-5%)
Between 500 and 999, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 2000
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-4%)
Yes
98%
(+4%)
No
Passage of time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
2%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
98%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 3, 2024 to Oct 3, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
95%
(+5%)
Less than or equal to 499
5%
(-4%)
Between 500 and 999, inclusive
0%
(-1%)
Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 2000
Passage of time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(-3%)
Yes
94%
(+3%)
No
Passage of time
Files
Based on recent events.