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Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

You quit this question on Dec 29, 2023 09:16PM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 15, 2023 03:14PM UTC
(5 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	8%	4%	+4%	-4%
No	92%	96%	-4%	+4%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 03, 2024 03:55PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Apr 3, 2024 to Oct 3, 2024	Jul 3, 2024	0%	+0%	+0%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 05, 2024 12:56AM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	2%	4%	-2%	+0%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	98%	95%	+3%	+1%

Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 15, 2024 04:09PM UTC
(28 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	2%	-1%	-1%
No	99%	98%	+1%	+1%

Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(19 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 15, 2024 04:12PM UTC
(28 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	12%	-10%	-2%
No	98%	88%	+10%	+2%

From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(19 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 25, 2024 02:16PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 499	100%	99%	+1%	+3%
Between 500 and 999, inclusive	0%	1%	-1%	-2%
Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 2000	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

You quit this question on Apr 30, 2024 05:43PM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 26, 2024 07:50PM UTC
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	30%	55%	-25%	+0%
No	70%	45%	+25%	+0%

peregrine

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