p01yh15t0r
made their 5th forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Feb 19, 2024 01:27AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
55% (+45%)
Yes
Jan 19, 2024 to Jul 19, 2024

Hiking up significantly to align with the previous rationales proffered by @belikewater in light of PM Netanyahu's latest comments:

[Responding to a] reporter, who asks why Israel is sufficing with attacks on Iran’s proxies rather than attacking Iran directly, Netanyahu responds, "Who says we aren’t attacking Iran? We are attacking Iran. Iran has further phases to go through that I won’t detail on the path to nuclear weapons."

Taking a retrospective look following Netanyahu's confirmatory color reveals 2 potentially relevant, media-reported incidents over the last few months:

  • An attack on an Iranian missile-related facility
    According to a Times of Israel report from 26 Sept '23, the Imam Ali missile base ~20 miles outside of Khorramabad may have been the target of a Mossad operation possibly conducted via bomb-laden drones

  • An attack on an Iranian nuclear-related facility
    A brief JPost headline from 26 Nov '23 states that the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center (INTC) experienced an explosion. Ya Libnan adds that INTC is "suspected of being the center of a secret Iranian nuclear weapons program [and] is the target of both U.S. and UN sanctions"

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@p01yh15t0r  very interesting rationale! I did expected to read such a rich content,  when the forecast is sending upper 45% the chances. thanks for sharing!

I have seen the correlation between Israel`s PM declarations since Oct 7th, and the strategic developments of tactical actions from IDF, and indeed, he mantains his posture about continuing the retaliations until the total destruction of the enemies. I don`t doubt that they will end reaching Iran this year.

Best regards.

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