INFER Public

What percentage of Arizona will be facing severe drought or worse on 5 July 2022?

Question Ends:
Jul 05, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 01, 2022 10:30AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 50%		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 50% but less than 60%		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 60% but less than 70%		Answer was correct
More than or equal to 70% but less than 80%		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 80%		Answer was incorrect

Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern between August 1, 2021 and July 31, 2022?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 21, 2022 01:07AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

Will the U.S. Congress pass a tax credit for semiconductor manufacturing or design before 1 January 2023?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 27, 2022 11:15PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, for both manufacturing and design		Answer was incorrect
Yes, for only manufacturing		Answer was correct
Yes, for only design		Answer was incorrect
No		Answer was incorrect

Will the U.S. Senate vote on the American Innovation and Choice Online Act before 30 July 2022?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 30, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 28, 2022 02:57PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, and it will pass		Answer was incorrect
Yes, and it will not pass		Answer was incorrect
No		Answer was correct

Will the Council of the European Union announce sanctions on the provision of cloud services to Russia before 31 July 2022?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 31, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 28, 2022 02:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months?

As of Sep 1, 2022 11:55PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 01, 2022 11:55PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months?

As of Sep 12, 2022 01:01PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 12, 2022 01:01PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months?

As of Sep 28, 2022 12:03AM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 28, 2022 12:03AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will Jair Bolsonaro formally contest the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election by 31 December 2022?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 02, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 11, 2022 11:56AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

Will the Brothers of Italy Party (FdI) win the most seats in the 2022 Italian general election?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Sep 25, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 22, 2022 06:29PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

JonathanMann

Jonathan Mann

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