INFER Public

Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army invade Taiwan by May 31, 2021?

Question Ends:
Nov 11, 2020 04:52PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 08, 2020 10:06PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 30, 2021 10:14AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

When will the end of day closing value for the Russian Ruble against the US Dollar drop below 75 Rubles to 1 USD?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 26, 2022 12:11AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Before 1 April 2022		Answer was incorrect
Between 1 April 2022 and 30 April 2022, inclusive		Answer was correct
Between 1 May 2022 and 31 May 2022, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
Not before 1 June 2022		Answer was incorrect

What will be the end of day closing price of the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) on 6 May 2022?

Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 06, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 04, 2022 03:39PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $240		Answer was correct
More than or equal to $240 but less than $260		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to $260 but less than $280		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to $280 but less than $300		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to $300		Answer was incorrect

Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern in the next four quarters?

As of Aug 25, 2022 02:12PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2022 02:33PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 25, 2022 02:12PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

What will be the price of crude oil futures on 3 June 2022?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 28, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 27, 2022 01:32PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $75		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to $75 but less than $90		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to $90 but less than $105		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to $105 but less than $120		Answer was correct
More than or equal to $120		Answer was incorrect

What will be the price per ton of aluminum on 1 June 2022?

Forecast Count:
19 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 01, 2022 02:52AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $3000		Answer was correct
More than or equal to $3000 but less than $3500		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to $3500 but less than $4000		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to $4000		Answer was incorrect

In the next six months, will U.S. and China announce the establishment of an ongoing bilateral dialog mechanism that includes discussions of emerging technologies?

As of Jul 23, 2022 02:11AM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 29, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 23, 2022 02:11AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

How much revenue will Intel report for the second quarter of 2022?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 25, 2022 01:11PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $17 billion		Answer was correct
More than or equal to $17 billion but less than $18 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to $18 billion but less than $19 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to $19 billion		Answer was incorrect

How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for June 2022?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 27, 2022 09:20AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 5		Answer was incorrect
Between 5 and 9, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
Between 10 and 14, inclusive		Answer was correct
Between 15 and 19, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 20		Answer was incorrect

JonathanMann

Jonathan Mann

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