Loki

About:

I have some previous forecasting experience, and like maths, philosophy and effective altruism.
I run a monthly forecasting newsletter, available here: https://forecasting.substack.com/, and have written & maintain a forecast aggregator at https://metaforecast.org
Part of the legendary Samotsvey Forecasting team, which won the first two seasons overwhelmingly. Note: I will generally not be updating my forecasts, or participating in the 2022 season, on account of ARLIS paying too little.

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Forecasted Questions
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What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Mar 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 19, 2020 09:47PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than $400 billion Answer was incorrect
Between $400 billion and $480 billion, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than $480 billion but less than or equal to $560 billion Answer was incorrect
More than $560 billion but less than or equal to $640 billion Answer was incorrect
More than $640 billion Answer was correct

What will be the opening price of GameStop stock on Tuesday, February 16?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Feb 16, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Feb 14, 2021 11:00AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than $20 Answer was incorrect
Between $20 and $100, inclusive Answer was correct
More than $100 but less than or equal to $300 Answer was incorrect
More than $300 but less than or equal to $500 Answer was incorrect
More than $500 but less than or equal to $1000 Answer was incorrect
More than $1000 Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 May 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Mar 07, 2021 04:34PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 59% Answer was incorrect
Between 59% and 66%, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 66% but less than or equal to 73% Answer was incorrect
More than 73% but less than or equal to 80% Answer was correct
More than 80% Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Mar 14, 2021 02:04PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 15% Answer was incorrect
Between 15% and 17%, inclusive Answer was correct
More than 17% but less than or equal to 19% Answer was incorrect
More than 19% but less than or equal to 21% Answer was incorrect
More than 21% Answer was incorrect

How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Mar 21, 2021 06:26PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Zero Answer was correct
One Answer was incorrect
Two or more Answer was incorrect

What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 20, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Mar 29, 2021 06:46PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 20% Answer was incorrect
Between 20% and 25%, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 25% but less than or equal to 30% Answer was correct
More than 30% but less than or equal to 35% Answer was incorrect
More than 35% Answer was incorrect

When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?

Forecast Count:
 12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 May 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 04, 2021 01:58PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Before February 17, 2021 Answer was incorrect
Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive Answer was incorrect
After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021 Answer was incorrect
After November 17, 2021 Answer was correct

What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 18, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 04, 2021 02:08PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 1.5% Answer was incorrect
Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5% Answer was correct
More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6% Answer was incorrect
More than 6% Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jun 19, 2021 03:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 May 30, 2021 05:57PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?

Forecast Count:
 14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jun 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 May 30, 2021 07:14PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect
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