Loki

About:

I have some previous forecasting experience, and like maths, philosophy and effective altruism.
I run a monthly forecasting newsletter, available here: https://forecasting.substack.com/, and have written & maintain a forecast aggregator at https://metaforecast.org
Part of the legendary Samotsvey Forecasting team, which won the first two seasons overwhelmingly. Note: I will generally not be updating my forecasts, or participating in the 2022 season, on account of ARLIS paying too little.

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Forecasted Questions
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Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Aug 27, 2021 05:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 16, 2021 05:18PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Aug 27, 2021 05:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 16, 2021 05:24PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 59% Answer was incorrect
Between 59% and 66%, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 66% but less than or equal to 73% Answer was incorrect
More than 73% but less than or equal to 80% Answer was incorrect
More than 80% Answer was correct

Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?

Forecast Count:
 13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Aug 17, 2021 01:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 16, 2021 05:31PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will Li Keqiang be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 28, 2021 09:26PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?

Forecast Count:
 8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Oct 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 29, 2021 02:33PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 7,500 Answer was incorrect
Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive Answer was correct
More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500 Answer was incorrect
More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500 Answer was incorrect
More than 13,500 Answer was incorrect

What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Nov 16, 2021 05:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 29, 2021 03:08PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than $400 billion Answer was incorrect
Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion Answer was incorrect
More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion Answer was correct
More than $775 billion Answer was incorrect

Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?

Forecast Count:
 14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 06, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 29, 2021 03:16PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was correct

[Experimental] What will be the consensus crowd forecast on October 1, 2021, on whether COVID-19 originated in a lab in Wuhan, China?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 01, 2021 10:50AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
0-10% Answer was incorrect
10-20% Answer was incorrect
20-30% Answer was incorrect
30-40% Answer was correct
40-50% Answer was incorrect
50-60% Answer was incorrect
60-70% Answer was incorrect
70-80% Answer was incorrect
80-90% Answer was incorrect
90-100% Answer was incorrect

Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 17, 2021 06:13PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will Chen Min'er be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 17, 2021 06:14PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect
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