Forecasted Questions
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(27 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(27 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 16, 2024 05:10AM UTC
(19 days ago)
Apr 16, 2024 05:10AM UTC
(19 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 19% | 13% | +6% | -1% |
| No | 81% | 87% | -6% | +1% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 16, 2024 05:11AM UTC
(19 days ago)
Apr 16, 2024 05:11AM UTC
(19 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 56% | 57% | -1% | -2% |
| No | 44% | 43% | +1% | +2% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 26, 2024 06:39AM UTC
(9 days ago)
Apr 26, 2024 06:39AM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | Apr 26, 2024 to Apr 26, 2025 | Jul 26, 2024 | 6% | -1% | -4% |
| No | 95% | Apr 26, 2024 to Apr 26, 2025 | Jul 26, 2024 | 94% | +1% | +4% |
Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 26, 2024 06:39AM UTC
(9 days ago)
Apr 26, 2024 06:39AM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | Apr 26, 2024 to May 26, 2024 | May 26, 2024 | 6% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 95% | Apr 26, 2024 to May 26, 2024 | May 26, 2024 | 94% | +1% | +0% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 26, 2024 06:39AM UTC
(9 days ago)
Apr 26, 2024 06:39AM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 4% | -4% | -1% |
| No | 100% | 96% | +4% | +1% |
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 26, 2024 06:40AM UTC
(9 days ago)
Apr 26, 2024 06:40AM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Apr 26, 2024 to Oct 26, 2024 | May 26, 2024 | 3% | -3% | -1% |
| No | 100% | Apr 26, 2024 to Oct 26, 2024 | May 26, 2024 | 97% | +3% | +1% |
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 26, 2024 06:46AM UTC
(9 days ago)
Apr 26, 2024 06:46AM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 31% | Apr 26, 2024 to Apr 26, 2025 | May 26, 2024 | 21% | +10% | -5% |
| No | 69% | Apr 26, 2024 to Apr 26, 2025 | May 26, 2024 | 79% | -10% | +5% |
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 26, 2024 06:47AM UTC
(9 days ago)
Apr 26, 2024 06:47AM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | Apr 26, 2024 to Oct 26, 2024 | May 26, 2024 | 16% | +4% | +0% |
| No | 80% | Apr 26, 2024 to Oct 26, 2024 | May 26, 2024 | 84% | -4% | +0% |