Forecasted Questions
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 22, 2024 10:14PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jan 22, 2024 10:14PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than or equal to 499 | 62% | 99% | -37% | +27% |
Between 500 and 999, inclusive | 31% | 1% | +30% | -26% |
Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive | 6% | 0% | +6% | -1% |
Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive | 1% | 0% | +1% | +0% |
More than or equal to 2000 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 22, 2024 11:29PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jan 22, 2024 11:29PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) | 0% | 4% | -4% | +0% |
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) | 100% | 95% | +5% | +0% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 22, 2024 11:29PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jan 22, 2024 11:29PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Kuwait | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
Oman | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
Qatar | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
Saudi Arabia | 0% | 5% | -5% | +0% |
Tunisia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |