Forecasted Questions
How politically polarized will U.S. citizens be in 2024?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 13, 2021 04:47PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Oct 13, 2021 04:47PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Which tech company will be the first to reach a market cap of $5 trillion?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 15, 2022 11:09PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 15, 2022 11:09PM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apple | 20% | 48% | -28% | +10% |
| Microsoft | 20% | 22% | -2% | +3% |
| Alphabet (Google) | 20% | 13% | +7% | -3% |
| Amazon | 40% | 10% | +30% | -5% |
| Tesla | 0% | 3% | -3% | -3% |
| Meta (Facebook) | 0% | 1% | -1% | -3% |
| Other | 0% | 2% | -2% | -1% |
How will the percentage of SMIC revenue from 28 nm chips or smaller change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 23, 2022 09:29PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Mar 23, 2022 09:29PM UTC
(2 years ago)
How will annual money raised by U.S. tech startups change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 21, 2022 02:24PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Dec 21, 2022 02:24PM UTC
(1 year ago)
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
As of Jan 1, 2024 12:12PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2023 12:12PM UTC
(6 months ago)
Dec 01, 2023 12:12PM UTC
(6 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | Dec 1, 2023 to Jun 1, 2024 | Jan 1, 2024 | 10% | +5% | -11% |
| No | 85% | Dec 1, 2023 to Jun 1, 2024 | Jan 1, 2024 | 90% | -5% | +11% |
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
As of Jan 1, 2024 12:26PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2023 12:26PM UTC
(6 months ago)
Dec 01, 2023 12:26PM UTC
(6 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | Dec 1, 2023 to Jun 1, 2024 | Jan 1, 2024 | 3% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 98% | Dec 1, 2023 to Jun 1, 2024 | Jan 1, 2024 | 97% | +1% | +0% |
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
As of Jan 1, 2024 12:33PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2023 12:33PM UTC
(6 months ago)
Dec 01, 2023 12:33PM UTC
(6 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | Dec 1, 2023 to Jun 1, 2024 | Jan 1, 2024 | 3% | +1% | +2% |
| No | 96% | Dec 1, 2023 to Jun 1, 2024 | Jan 1, 2024 | 97% | -1% | -2% |
Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months?
As of Jan 18, 2024 11:08PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 18, 2023 11:08PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Dec 18, 2023 11:08PM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 45% | Dec 18, 2023 to Jun 18, 2024 | Jan 18, 2024 | 18% | +27% | -24% |
| No | 55% | Dec 18, 2023 to Jun 18, 2024 | Jan 18, 2024 | 82% | -27% | +24% |
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
As of Mar 27, 2024 01:39AM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 27, 2023 01:39AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Dec 27, 2023 01:39AM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Dec 27, 2023 to Jun 27, 2024 | Mar 27, 2024 | 0% | +0% | -1% |
Will Imran Khan be re-elected as prime minister following Pakistan’s upcoming general election?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 09, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Feb 09, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 22, 2024 06:32PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jan 22, 2024 06:32PM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |