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Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 24, 2021 01:20PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will a G7 country boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics before January 1, 2022?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 27, 2021 05:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 27, 2021 11:31AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between September 1, 2021 and February 28, 2022, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Aug 31, 2021 10:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 27, 2021 11:33AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

[Experimental] What will be the consensus crowd forecast on October 1, 2021, on whether COVID-19 originated in a lab in Wuhan, China?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 10, 2021 02:53PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
0-10%		Answer was incorrect
10-20%		Answer was incorrect
20-30%		Answer was incorrect
30-40%		Answer was correct
40-50%		Answer was incorrect
50-60%		Answer was incorrect
60-70%		Answer was incorrect
70-80%		Answer was incorrect
80-90%		Answer was incorrect
90-100%		Answer was incorrect

In Stanford University's 2022 AI Report, what percentage of new US resident PhD's in AI will be Asian, Black or African American, Hispanic, or multiracial?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 15, 2022 10:58PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 28		Answer was incorrect
Between 28 and 30, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 30 but less than 32		Answer was incorrect
Between 32 and 35, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 35		Answer was correct

Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 31, 2022 11:59PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 24, 2022 02:55PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

When will the end of day closing value for the Russian Ruble against the US Dollar drop below 75 Rubles to 1 USD?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 22, 2022 04:37PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Before 1 April 2022		Answer was incorrect
Between 1 April 2022 and 30 April 2022, inclusive		Answer was correct
Between 1 May 2022 and 31 May 2022, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
Not before 1 June 2022		Answer was incorrect

In the next six months, will U.S. and China announce the establishment of an ongoing bilateral dialog mechanism that includes discussions of emerging technologies?

As of Jun 13, 2022 02:58PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 29, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 13, 2022 02:58PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

What will be the price per ton of aluminum on 1 June 2022?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 26, 2022 01:23PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $3000		Answer was correct
More than or equal to $3000 but less than $3500		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to $3500 but less than $4000		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to $4000		Answer was incorrect

Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern between August 1, 2021 and July 31, 2022?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 19, 2022 06:36AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

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