INFER Public

What percentage of Arizona will be facing severe drought or worse on 5 July 2022?

Question Ends:
Jul 05, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 01, 2022 05:23PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 50%		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 50% but less than 60%		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 60% but less than 70%		Answer was correct
More than or equal to 70% but less than 80%		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 80%		Answer was incorrect

Will the U.S. House Subcommittee on Consumer Protection and Commerce vote on the Algorithmic Accountability Act of 2022 before 31 July 2022?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 23, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 15, 2022 11:16AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, and the bill will be favorably reported to the full committee		Answer was incorrect
Yes, but the bill will not be favorably reported to the full committee		Answer was incorrect
No, a vote will not occur		Answer was correct

How many tech startup layoff events will be recorded in July 2022?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 23, 2022 04:16PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 74		Answer was incorrect
Between 75 and 99, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 100		Answer was correct

Will the Council of the European Union announce sanctions on the provision of cloud services to Russia before 31 July 2022?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 31, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 23, 2022 08:49PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will the U.S. Senate vote on the American Innovation and Choice Online Act before 30 July 2022?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 30, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 28, 2022 06:23PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, and it will pass		Answer was incorrect
Yes, and it will not pass		Answer was incorrect
No		Answer was correct

Will the French data protection authority (CNIL) announce a fine against Clearview AI before 31 July 2022?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 31, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 29, 2022 12:11PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will the Brothers of Italy Party (FdI) win the most seats in the 2022 Italian general election?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Sep 25, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2022 11:27PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

What will be the outcome of the Israeli legislative election on 1 November 2022?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Nov 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2022 11:37PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
A coalition government is formed and Yair Lapid becomes Prime Minister		Answer was incorrect
A coalition government is formed and Benjamin Netanyahu becomes Prime Minister		Answer was correct
A coalition government is formed but neither Lapid nor Netanyahu becomes Prime Minister		Answer was incorrect
A coalition government is not formed		Answer was incorrect

Will Jair Bolsonaro formally contest the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election by 31 December 2022?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 02, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2022 10:38PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

How many U.S. teams will be named as a Winner or Runner Up at the 2022 iGEM Grand Jamboree in Paris?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 26, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 04, 2022 02:15PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
0		Answer was incorrect
1		Answer was correct
2 or more		Answer was incorrect

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