mollygh

Molly Hickman
About:

I'm a data analyst at the Forecasting Research Institute. I hold a Masters in Computer Science from Virginia Tech. My undergraduate degree is in math and linguistics from University of Maryland - Baltimore County (UMBC). For several years I worked on forecasting projects at the MITRE Corporation.

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Forecasted Questions
Open Closed Resolved

What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the first two quarters (January 1 through June 30) of 2021?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 25, 2020 10:41PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than $440 billion Answer was incorrect
Between $440 billion and $490 billion, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than $490 billion but less than or equal to $540 billion Answer was incorrect
More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $590 billion Answer was incorrect
More than $590 billion Answer was correct

What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 May 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 30, 2020 05:46PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 59% Answer was incorrect
Between 59% and 66%, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 66% but less than or equal to 73% Answer was incorrect
More than 73% but less than or equal to 80% Answer was correct
More than 80% Answer was incorrect

Will any private messages obtained in the July 15, 2020 Twitter hack be leaked to the public by November 2, 2020?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Oct 30, 2020 12:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 23, 2020 08:17PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between January 1 and June 30, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 25, 2020 08:17PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 25, 2020 08:25PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than $30 million Answer was incorrect
Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive Answer was correct
More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million Answer was incorrect
More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million Answer was incorrect
More than $150 million Answer was incorrect

How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 25, 2020 08:43PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than $200 million Answer was incorrect
Between $200 million and $300 million, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than $300 million but less than or equal to $400 million Answer was incorrect
More than $400 million but less than or equal to $500 million Answer was correct
More than $500 million Answer was incorrect

When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 May 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 01, 2021 07:30PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Before February 17, 2021 Answer was incorrect
Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive Answer was incorrect
After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021 Answer was incorrect
After November 17, 2021 Answer was correct

What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 18, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 01, 2021 07:30PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 1.5% Answer was incorrect
Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5% Answer was correct
More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6% Answer was incorrect
More than 6% Answer was incorrect

What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 20, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 01, 2021 07:31PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 20% Answer was incorrect
Between 20% and 25%, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 25% but less than or equal to 30% Answer was correct
More than 30% but less than or equal to 35% Answer was incorrect
More than 35% Answer was incorrect

Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jun 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 May 20, 2021 07:22PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect
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