mollygh

Molly Hickman
About:

I'm a data analyst at the Forecasting Research Institute. I hold a Masters in Computer Science from Virginia Tech. My undergraduate degree is in math and linguistics from University of Maryland - Baltimore County (UMBC). For several years I worked on forecasting projects at the MITRE Corporation.

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Forecasted Questions
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What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between June 15 and August 15, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Aug 16, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 09, 2020 07:55PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 0.5% Answer was incorrect
Between 0.5% and 1.0%, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 1.0% but less than or equal to 1.5% Answer was correct
More than 1.5% Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea by September 30, 2020?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 18, 2020 01:36PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 23, 2020 01:56PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 6,000 Answer was incorrect
Between 6,000 and 8,000, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 8,000 but less than or equal to 10,000 Answer was incorrect
More than 10,000 but less than or equal to 12,000 Answer was correct
More than 12,000 Answer was incorrect

Will either China or India respond to the events in Aksai Chin on June 15, 2020 by launching an airstrike, missile attack, or using another form of lethal force by June 28, 2020?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jun 29, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(4 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 25, 2020 04:51PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Feb 25, 2021 06:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 30, 2020 01:13AM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 5,000 Answer was incorrect
Between 5,000 and 7,500, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 7,500 but less than or equal to 10,000 Answer was incorrect
More than 10,000 but less than or equal to12,500 Answer was correct
More than12,500 Answer was incorrect

Will the Executive Branch delay implementation of any part of Section 889, Part B, of the 2018 National Defense Authorization Act by July 17, 2020?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 16, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(4 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jul 11, 2020 10:55AM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will the Indian government continue the TikTok ban through July 14, 2020?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 15, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(4 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jul 14, 2020 01:09PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was correct

Will the Chinese government add Apple, Qualcomm, Cisco, or Boeing to its 'unreliable entities list' by August 10, 2020?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Aug 11, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jul 27, 2020 06:23PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will Germany, France, Italy, or Spain announce any new restrictions on the use of Huawei equipment in their 5G networks by July 31, 2020?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Aug 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(4 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jul 30, 2020 03:56PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the third quarter of 2020 (ending September 30)?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Sep 23, 2020 07:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 18, 2020 01:41AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than $190 billion Answer was incorrect
Between $190 billion and $230 billion, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than $230 billion but less than or equal to $270 billion Answer was correct
More than $270 billion but less than or equal to $310 billion Answer was incorrect
More than $310 billion Answer was incorrect
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