INFER Public

Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?

Question Ends:
Aug 17, 2021 01:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 04, 2021 06:19PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 27, 2021 05:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 23, 2021 01:38PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 59%		Answer was incorrect
Between 59% and 66%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%		Answer was incorrect
More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%		Answer was incorrect
More than 80%		Answer was correct

Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 31, 2022 11:59PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 25, 2022 03:19AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

When will 1 billion people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2022 12:00PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2022 07:39PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Before January 1, 2022		Answer was incorrect
Between January 1, 2022, and March 31, 2022		Answer was incorrect
Between April 1, 2022 and June 30, 2022		Answer was correct
Between July 1, 2022 and September 30, 2022		Answer was incorrect
Not before October 1, 2022		Answer was incorrect

Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern in the next four quarters?

As of Aug 28, 2022 06:36PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2022 02:33PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 28, 2022 06:36PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

How many tech startup layoff events will be recorded in July 2022?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 26, 2022 04:10AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 74		Answer was incorrect
Between 75 and 99, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 100		Answer was correct

Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?

Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 05:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 27, 2022 05:47PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

How many integrated circuit (IC) units will China produce in 2022?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 27, 2022 06:11PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 200 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 200 billion but less than 300 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 300 billion but less than 400 billion		Answer was correct
More than or equal to 400 billion but less than 500 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 500 billion		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of contributions to Github's “very high impact” AI projects will be from the EU in 2022?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 27, 2022 09:02PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 10		Answer was correct
More than or equal to 10 but less than 15		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 15 but less than 20		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 20		Answer was incorrect

What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in 2022?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 29, 2022 02:50AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $5 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $5 billion but less than or equal to $6 billion		Answer was correct
Between $6 billion and $7 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
Between $7 billion and $8 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $8 billion		Answer was incorrect

mollygh

Molly Hickman

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