7th
Accuracy Rank

o-maverick

About:

Show more
View All Badges »
2024 Season Stats

-0.626858

Relative Brier Score

222

Forecasts

53

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 37 501 222 1156
Comments 0 1 31 9 74
Questions Forecasted 0 36 106 56 205
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 7 93 53 149
 Definitions
New Badge
o-maverick earned a new badge:

Top Forecaster - Jun 2024

Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Badge
o-maverick earned a new badge:

Power Forecaster - Jun 2024

Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
o-maverick made their 10th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
15% (0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
15% (0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
o-maverick made their 6th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Jul 1, 2024 to Jan 1, 2025
100% (0%)
No
Jul 1, 2024 to Jan 1, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Adjusting my previous forecast.
Files
New Prediction
Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month?
o-maverick made their 5th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10% (-30%)
Yes
Jun 29, 2024 to Jul 29, 2024
90% (+30%)
No
Jun 29, 2024 to Jul 29, 2024

I'm reducing the odds given that Iraq has not yet returned its ambassador and because the bilateral relations seem to have not yet improved.

https://thecradle.co/articles-id/427

Files
New Prediction
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
o-maverick made their 7th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Jun 29, 2024 to Dec 29, 2024
99% (0%)
No
Jun 29, 2024 to Dec 29, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
o-maverick made their 7th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20% (0%)
Yes
Jun 29, 2024 to Dec 29, 2024
80% (0%)
No
Jun 29, 2024 to Dec 29, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?
o-maverick made their 5th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
33% (+18%)
Yes
Jun 29, 2024 to Dec 29, 2024
67% (-18%)
No
Jun 29, 2024 to Dec 29, 2024

I'm increasing the likelihood of this event considering that Netanyahu is giving signs and announcing that something big will happen soon against Hezbollah.

https://www.msn.com/en-my/news/other/netanyahu-in-north-we-re-ready-for-intense-action-against-hezbollah/ar-BB1nFcC7?ocid=BingNewsSerp 

Files
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username
Cancel