Confirmed previous forecast
-0.625236
Relative Brier Score
144
Forecasts
37
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 43 | 501 | 144 | 1078 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 35 | 5 | 70 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 42 | 107 | 52 | 201 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 2 | 7 | 88 | 37 | 133 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Apr 2024
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Yes
85%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
15%
(0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
33%
(+18%)
Yes
May 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2024
Adjusting expectations given the intensification of the tensions between Israel and Iran.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
May 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Increasing the odds due to what has happened in Karkhiv in the past few days. Ukraine said the offensive against Karkhiv was renewed, but Moscow said nothing yet.
https://www.rt.com/russia/597344-ukraine-new-kharkov-offensive/