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Forecasted Questions
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2023 08:31PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Dec 31, 2023 08:31PM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 499 | 65% | 99% | -34% | +32% |
| Between 500 and 999, inclusive | 34% | 1% | +33% | -31% |
| Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive | 1% | 0% | +1% | -1% |
| Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 2000 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many protests and riots will ACLED record in Colombia?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2023 08:31PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Dec 31, 2023 08:31PM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 749 | 0% | 0% | +0% | -1% |
| Between 750 and 1499, inclusive | 1% | 0% | +1% | -2% |
| Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive | 12% | 5% | +7% | -15% |
| Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive | 80% | 95% | -15% | +30% |
| More than or equal to 3000 | 7% | 0% | +7% | -13% |
For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2023 09:04PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Dec 31, 2023 09:04PM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 Q2 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 2023 Q3 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 2023 Q4 | 1% | 0% | +1% | +0% |
| 2024 Q1 | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
| 2024 Q2 | 4% | 1% | +3% | -1% |
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2023 09:45PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Dec 31, 2023 09:45PM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | 12% | +38% | -28% |
| No | 50% | 88% | -38% | +28% |
Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 01, 2024 01:29AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Jan 01, 2024 01:29AM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 2% | -1% | -1% |
| No | 99% | 98% | +1% | +1% |