INFER Public

What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2021 05:46PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than -0.25	4%	14%	-10%	-1%
Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive	42%	31%	+11%	+0%
More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25	43%	33%	+10%	+2%
More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5	10%	17%	-7%	+0%
More than 0.5	1%	4%	-3%	+0%

Which tech company will be the first to reach a market cap of $5 trillion?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 27, 2022 06:39PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Apple	60%	48%	+12%	+1%
Microsoft	30%	22%	+8%	+0%
Alphabet (Google)	10%	13%	-3%	-1%
Amazon	0%	10%	-10%	-1%
Tesla	0%	3%	-3%	+0%
Meta (Facebook)	0%	1%	-1%	0%
Other	0%	2%	-2%	+0%

How will the percentage of SMIC revenue from 28 nm chips or smaller change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 29, 2022 07:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Which company will be the largest semiconductor company by sales revenue in 2022?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Nov 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2022 08:21PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Intel	20%	16%	+4%	+1%
Samsung	59%	53%	+6%	+0%
TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company)	20%	30%	-10%	-1%
Other	1%	0%	+1%	+0%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

As of Jan 31, 2024 06:29PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2023 06:29PM UTC
(5 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Dec 31, 2023 to Jun 30, 2024	Jan 31, 2024	1%	-1%	+0%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

As of Mar 31, 2024 06:29PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2023 06:29PM UTC
(5 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	Dec 31, 2023 to Jun 30, 2024	Mar 31, 2024	0%	+2%	-1%

Will the Global Protest Tracker record a significant antigovernment protest involving 10,000 or more participants in Thailand between April 2023 and April 2024?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(16 days ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2023 06:30PM UTC
(5 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	0%	+0%	-1%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

As of Jan 31, 2024 06:32PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2023 06:32PM UTC
(5 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	Dec 31, 2023 to Jun 30, 2024	Jan 31, 2024	3%	+0%	+1%
No	97%	Dec 31, 2023 to Jun 30, 2024	Jan 31, 2024	97%	+0%	-1%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

As of Jan 31, 2024 06:32PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2023 06:32PM UTC
(5 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	7%	Dec 31, 2023 to Jun 30, 2024	Jan 31, 2024	10%	-3%	-5%
No	93%	Dec 31, 2023 to Jun 30, 2024	Jan 31, 2024	90%	+3%	+5%

Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months?

As of Jan 31, 2024 06:32PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2023 06:32PM UTC
(5 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	45%	Dec 31, 2023 to Jun 30, 2024	Jan 31, 2024	20%	+25%	-3%
No	55%	Dec 31, 2023 to Jun 30, 2024	Jan 31, 2024	80%	-25%	+3%

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