INFER Public

What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)?

Question Ends:
Mar 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 03, 2021 11:47AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 2%		Answer was correct
Between 2% and 3.5%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 3.5% but less than or equal to 5%		Answer was incorrect
More than 5% but less than or equal to 6.5%		Answer was incorrect
More than 6.5%		Answer was incorrect

What will be the opening price of GameStop stock on Tuesday, February 16?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 16, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 08, 2021 08:33PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $20		Answer was incorrect
Between $20 and $100, inclusive		Answer was correct
More than $100 but less than or equal to $300		Answer was incorrect
More than $300 but less than or equal to $500		Answer was incorrect
More than $500 but less than or equal to $1000		Answer was incorrect
More than $1000		Answer was incorrect

What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in the first half of 2021?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Mar 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 17, 2021 03:37AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $3.9 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $3.9 billion but less than or equal to $4.5 billion		Answer was incorrect
Between $4.5 billion and $5.1 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
Between $5.1 billion and $5.7 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $5.7 billion		Answer was correct

What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Mar 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 17, 2021 03:40AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $400 billion		Answer was incorrect
Between $400 billion and $480 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $480 billion but less than or equal to $560 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $560 billion but less than or equal to $640 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $640 billion		Answer was correct

What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
May 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 02, 2021 02:16PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 59%		Answer was incorrect
Between 59% and 66%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%		Answer was incorrect
More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%		Answer was correct
More than 80%		Answer was incorrect

When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
May 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 02, 2021 02:19PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Before February 17, 2021		Answer was incorrect
Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021		Answer was incorrect
After November 17, 2021		Answer was correct

Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 02, 2021 02:20PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 25, 2021 03:47PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 15%		Answer was incorrect
Between 15% and 17%, inclusive		Answer was correct
More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%		Answer was incorrect
More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%		Answer was incorrect
More than 21%		Answer was incorrect

How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 25, 2021 03:49PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 675		Answer was correct
Between 675 and 750, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 750 but less than or equal to 825		Answer was incorrect
More than 825 but less than or equal to 900		Answer was incorrect
More than 900		Answer was incorrect

How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 25, 2021 03:50PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Zero		Answer was correct
One		Answer was incorrect
Two or more		Answer was incorrect

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