40th
Accuracy Rank

sanyer

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Forecasted Questions

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 28, 2024 11:42AM UTC
(21 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) 0% 1%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) 3% 4%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) 97% 95%

Will 100 or more people be killed or injured in a Russian attack on the city of Kyiv before 1 June 2024?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(13 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 28, 2024 12:42PM UTC
(21 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 2%
No 99% 98%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 28, 2024 01:40PM UTC
(20 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Estonia 1% 1%
Latvia 1% 1%
Lithuania 1% 1%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 29, 2024 09:50AM UTC
(20 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kharkiv 20% 52%
Kyiv 0% 3%
Odesa 2% 3%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 29, 2024 09:51AM UTC
(20 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 4% 2%
No 96% 98%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 17, 2024 06:36AM UTC
(2 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 22% 10%
No 78% 90%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 17, 2024 07:33AM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Moldova 17% 14%
Armenia 1% 1%
Georgia 11% 8%
Kazakhstan 1% 2%
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