Forecasted Questions
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 28, 2024 11:42AM UTC
(21 days ago)
Apr 28, 2024 11:42AM UTC
(21 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) | 3% | 4% | -1% | +0% |
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) | 97% | 95% | +2% | +0% |
Will 100 or more people be killed or injured in a Russian attack on the city of Kyiv before 1 June 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(13 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(13 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 28, 2024 12:42PM UTC
(21 days ago)
Apr 28, 2024 12:42PM UTC
(21 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
No | 99% | 98% | +1% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 28, 2024 01:40PM UTC
(20 days ago)
Apr 28, 2024 01:40PM UTC
(20 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Estonia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Latvia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Lithuania | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 29, 2024 09:50AM UTC
(20 days ago)
Apr 29, 2024 09:50AM UTC
(20 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Kharkiv | 20% | 52% | -32% | +28% |
Kyiv | 0% | 3% | -3% | +2% |
Odesa | 2% | 3% | -1% | +2% |
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 29, 2024 09:51AM UTC
(20 days ago)
Apr 29, 2024 09:51AM UTC
(20 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 4% | 2% | +2% | +0% |
No | 96% | 98% | -2% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 17, 2024 06:36AM UTC
(2 days ago)
May 17, 2024 06:36AM UTC
(2 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 22% | 10% | +12% | +1% |
No | 78% | 90% | -12% | -1% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 17, 2024 07:33AM UTC
(1 day ago)
May 17, 2024 07:33AM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Moldova | 17% | 14% | +3% | +0% |
Armenia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Georgia | 11% | 8% | +3% | +0% |
Kazakhstan | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |