Forecasted Questions
What percentage of the world's AI patents will be granted in China in 2022?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 30, 2022 09:12AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Dec 30, 2022 09:12AM UTC
(1 year ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 5% | 12% | 5% | +7% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 5% but less than 7% | 59% | 73% | -14% | +1% |
| More than or equal to 7% | 29% | 22% | +7% | -1% |
What percentage of the world's AI patents will be granted in the European Union and United Kingdom in 2022?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 30, 2022 09:14AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Dec 30, 2022 09:14AM UTC
(1 year ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 7% | 36% | 43% | -7% | -1% |
| More than or equal to 7% but less than 10% | 58% | 53% | +5% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 10% | 6% | 4% | +2% | +0% |
What percentage of the world's AI patents will be granted in the United States in 2022?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 30, 2022 09:15AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Dec 30, 2022 09:15AM UTC
(1 year ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 40% | 55% | 51% | +4% | +1% |
| More than or equal to 40% but less than 50% | 35% | 38% | -3% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 50% but less than 60% | 9% | 10% | -1% | -1% |
| More than or equal to 60% | 1% | 1% | 0% | +0% |
Will Imran Khan be re-elected as prime minister following Pakistan’s upcoming general election?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 09, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Feb 09, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 21, 2024 08:42PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jan 21, 2024 08:42PM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
As of Apr 19, 2024 03:11PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 19, 2024 03:11PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Mar 19, 2024 03:11PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Mar 19, 2024 to Sep 19, 2024 | Apr 19, 2024 | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months?
As of May 17, 2024 10:01AM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 17, 2024 10:01AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Apr 17, 2024 10:01AM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 9% | Apr 17, 2024 to Oct 17, 2024 | May 17, 2024 | 18% | -9% | +5% |
| No | 91% | Apr 17, 2024 to Oct 17, 2024 | May 17, 2024 | 82% | +9% | -5% |
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?
As of May 17, 2024 10:04AM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 17, 2024 10:04AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Apr 17, 2024 10:04AM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 13% | Apr 17, 2024 to Oct 17, 2024 | May 17, 2024 | 12% | +1% | -2% |
| No | 87% | Apr 17, 2024 to Oct 17, 2024 | May 17, 2024 | 88% | -1% | +2% |
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?
As of May 17, 2024 10:04AM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 17, 2024 10:04AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Apr 17, 2024 10:04AM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 18% | Apr 17, 2024 to Apr 17, 2025 | May 17, 2024 | 15% | +3% | -9% |
| No | 82% | Apr 17, 2024 to Apr 17, 2025 | May 17, 2024 | 85% | -3% | +9% |