yagudin

misha
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I also forecast on https://www.gjopen.com/memberships/28899

(As of Feb 2022, I no longer update most of my forecasts here.)

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Forecasted Questions
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What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Mar 09, 2021 09:30AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 15% Answer was incorrect
Between 15% and 17%, inclusive Answer was correct
More than 17% but less than or equal to 19% Answer was incorrect
More than 19% but less than or equal to 21% Answer was incorrect
More than 21% Answer was incorrect

How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Mar 19, 2021 07:09PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Zero Answer was correct
One Answer was incorrect
Two or more Answer was incorrect

How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Mar 21, 2021 09:50AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 675 Answer was correct
Between 675 and 750, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 750 but less than or equal to 825 Answer was incorrect
More than 825 but less than or equal to 900 Answer was incorrect
More than 900 Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 18, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Mar 21, 2021 09:53AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 1.5% Answer was incorrect
Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5% Answer was correct
More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6% Answer was incorrect
More than 6% Answer was incorrect

When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 May 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 10, 2021 01:49PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Before February 17, 2021 Answer was incorrect
Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive Answer was incorrect
After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021 Answer was incorrect
After November 17, 2021 Answer was correct

Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?

Forecast Count:
 12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jun 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 May 27, 2021 12:04PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jun 19, 2021 03:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 03, 2021 04:29PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 03, 2021 04:29PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than $40 billion Answer was incorrect
Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion Answer was incorrect
More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion Answer was incorrect
More than $100 billion Answer was correct

How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 03, 2021 04:29PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than $13 billion Answer was incorrect
Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion Answer was incorrect
More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion Answer was incorrect
More than $25 billion Answer was correct

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 14, 2021 09:36PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect
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