agallant121

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Forecasted Questions

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 16, 2024 06:34PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 62% 55%
No 38% 45%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 23, 2024 03:13PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 4%
No 99% 96%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 14, 2024 02:59PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 5% 4%
No 95% 96%

From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(30 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 24, 2024 06:06PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than or equal to 49 92% 94%
Between 50 and 99, inclusive 8% 6%
Between 100 and 149, inclusive 0% 0%
Between 150 and 199, inclusive 0% 0%
More than or equal to 200 0% 0%
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