Forecasted Questions
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 16, 2024 06:34PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Feb 16, 2024 06:34PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 62% | 55% | +7% | -4% |
No | 38% | 45% | -7% | +4% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 23, 2024 03:13PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Feb 23, 2024 03:13PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | 4% | -3% | -1% |
No | 99% | 96% | +3% | +1% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 14, 2024 02:59PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Mar 14, 2024 02:59PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 5% | 4% | +1% | -3% |
No | 95% | 96% | -1% | +3% |
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(30 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(30 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 24, 2024 06:06PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Apr 24, 2024 06:06PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than or equal to 49 | 92% | 94% | -2% | +5% |
Between 50 and 99, inclusive | 8% | 6% | +2% | -5% |
Between 100 and 149, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Between 150 and 199, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
More than or equal to 200 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |