DKC

So it looks like MBS decided to wait out the US. Dropping significantly.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/may/01/saudi-us-biden-deal-israel

FTA:

The US and Saudi Arabia have drafted a set of agreements on security and technology-sharing which were intended to be linked to a broader Middle East settlement involving Israel and the Palestinians.

However, in the absence of a ceasefire in Gaza and in the face of adamant resistance from Benjamin Netanyahu’s Israeli government to the creation of a Palestinian state – and its apparent determination to launch an offensive on Rafah – the Saudis are pushing for a more modest plan B, which excludes the Israelis.

Under that option, the US and Saudi Arabia would sign agreements on a bilateral defence pact, US help in the building of a Saudi civil nuclear energy industry, and high-level sharing in the field of artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies.

An offer would be made to Israel of normalisation of diplomatic relations with Riyadh in return for Israeli acceptance of the two-state solution to the 76-year Israeli-Arab conflict. But under Riyadh’s plan B proposal, completion of the US-Saudi deals would not be made dependent on agreement from the Netanyahu government.

So it looks like MBS decided to wait out the US. Dropping significantly.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/may/01/saudi-us-biden-deal-israel

FTA:

The US and Saudi Arabia have drafted a set of agreements on security and technology-sharing which were intended to be linked to a broader Middle East settlement involving Israel and the Palestinians.

However, in the absence of a ceasefire in Gaza and in the face of adamant resistance from Benjamin Netanyahu’s Israeli government to the creation of a Palestinian state – and its apparent determination to launch an offensive on Rafah – the Saudis are pushing for a more modest plan B, which excludes the Israelis.

Under that option, the US and Saudi Arabia would sign agreements on a bilateral defence pact, US help in the building of a Saudi civil nuclear energy industry, and high-level sharing in the field of artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies.

An offer would be made to Israel of normalisation of diplomatic relations with Riyadh in return for Israeli acceptance of the two-state solution to the 76-year Israeli-Arab conflict. But under Riyadh’s plan B proposal, completion of the US-Saudi deals would not be made dependent on agreement from the Netanyahu government.

Saudi Arabia may take be in play. But, MBS may decide to wait until after the election. I'm thinking he sees Trump as much easier to buy/manipulate.

https://www.jns.org/report-saudi-arabia-has-decided-to-normalize-relations-with-israel/

FTA: Saudi Arabia has decided to normalize relations with Israel and is debating the timing of the announcement, a foreign diplomat familiar with the details told Haaretz on Monday.

According to the source cited in the article by the daily’s diplomatic correspondent Jonathan Lis, Riyadh is discussing whether to make the move in the coming weeks or after the U.S. presidential election this November, in which either Democrat Joe Biden will continue to lead the country or his challenger Republican Donald Trump will return to the White House.

Moving up for a few days to see what happens. MBS may decide to wait until after the election. I'm thinking he sees Trump as much easier to buy/manipulate.

https://www.jns.org/report-saudi-arabia-has-decided-to-normalize-relations-with-israel/

FTA: Saudi Arabia has decided to normalize relations with Israel and is debating the timing of the announcement, a foreign diplomat familiar with the details told Haaretz on Monday.

According to the source cited in the article by the daily’s diplomatic correspondent Jonathan Lis, Riyadh is discussing whether to make the move in the coming weeks or after the U.S. presidential election this November, in which either Democrat Joe Biden will continue to lead the country or his challenger Republican Donald Trump will return to the White House.

I'm dropping back down.

The question clarification of April 8 led me to believe "nation-wide" could exclude rebel areas.

(If voting is cancelled in some locations due to the armed conflict or security concerns (e.g., if the junta is unable to conduct elections in rebel-held areas), but the election is otherwise held at a national level, then the question will still be resolved as “Yes”. For example, voting was cancelled in multiple locations during the 2020 general elections, but a national election was otherwise held (USIP, TNI). If something similar were to happen again, this question would be resolved as “Yes”.)

But... it now appears the Junta control less than half the country. I can't imagine what they now control could be considered nation-wide.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/04/20/world/asia/myanmar-civil-war.html

FTA:

The resistance now controls more than half of Myanmar’s territory

...

Rebels now control much of Myanmar’s border region, including a strategic trading town that was captured on April 11. A few days later, they fired rockets at the nation’s top military academy. Some of the fighting is taking place within striking distance of Naypyidaw, the bunkered capital that the generals built early this century.

This year could be a turning point in Myanmar’s war, military analysts say. With each week, the junta’s forces abandon more outposts. Myanmar’s military is overstretched and underprovisioned. 

I think the jokes made about the ineffectiveness of Iran's strikes on Israel only make it  MORE likely they will continue to enrich uranium. They need to re-establish credibility IMHO.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/un-nuclear-chief-iran-weeks-not-months-from-enough-uranium-to-make-a-bomb/

The head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog has said that it would take Iran just weeks to have enough enriched uranium to make a nuclear bomb, and that Tehran’s activity, alongside the limited access it grants to its facilities, “raises eyebrows.”

But International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Mariano Grossi told Deutsche Welle in a report published Monday that attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities should be a “no-go.”

Grossi said that Iran is “weeks rather than months” away from having enough enriched uranium to make a nuclear weapon.

“But that does not mean that Iran has or would have a nuclear weapon in that space of time,” he added. “A functional nuclear warhead requires many other things independently from the production of the fissile material.”