Forecasted Questions
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
As of Apr 22, 2024 09:06PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts
16 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 07, 2024 08:48PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Apr 07, 2024 08:48PM UTC
(28 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Apr 7, 2024 to Oct 7, 2024 | May 7, 2024 | 3% | -2% | +1% |
| No | 99% | Apr 7, 2024 to Oct 7, 2024 | May 7, 2024 | 97% | +2% | -1% |
Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 25, 2024 08:52PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Apr 25, 2024 08:52PM UTC
(10 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | Apr 25, 2024 to May 25, 2024 | May 25, 2024 | 6% | -3% | +0% |
| No | 97% | Apr 25, 2024 to May 25, 2024 | May 25, 2024 | 94% | +3% | +0% |
Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?
Forecast Count:
27 Forecasts
27 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 26, 2024 04:43PM UTC
(9 days ago)
Apr 26, 2024 04:43PM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?
Forecast Count:
23 Forecasts
23 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 26, 2024 04:49PM UTC
(9 days ago)
Apr 26, 2024 04:49PM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 98% | +2% | +0% |
For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?
Forecast Count:
28 Forecasts
28 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 29, 2024 09:45PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Apr 29, 2024 09:45PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 Q2 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 2023 Q3 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 2023 Q4 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 2024 Q1 | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| 2024 Q2 | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
22 Forecasts
22 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 29, 2024 09:51PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Apr 29, 2024 09:51PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) | 0% | 4% | -4% | +0% |
| No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) | 100% | 95% | +5% | +0% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 29, 2024 10:00PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Apr 29, 2024 10:00PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 4% | -4% | -1% |
| No | 100% | 96% | +4% | +1% |
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
19 Forecasts
19 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 01, 2024 05:04PM UTC
(4 days ago)
May 01, 2024 05:04PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | May 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2024 | Jun 1, 2024 | 5% | -3% | -2% |
| No | 98% | May 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2024 | Jun 1, 2024 | 95% | +3% | +2% |
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 01, 2024 05:06PM UTC
(4 days ago)
May 01, 2024 05:06PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | May 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2024 | Jun 1, 2024 | 3% | +2% | -1% |
| No | 95% | May 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2024 | Jun 1, 2024 | 97% | -2% | +1% |
Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?
Forecast Count:
19 Forecasts
19 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 11:42PM UTC
(1 day ago)
May 03, 2024 11:42PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 3% | -3% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 97% | +3% | +0% |