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DKC

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I love dogs, travel, writing, and geopolitical forecasting. And I feel fortunate to have all of those in my life.

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Forecasted Questions
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What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2022?

Forecast Count:
 14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Nov 15, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 14, 2021 11:51PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 2% 2% 7%
Between 2% and 4%, inclusive 23% 23%
More than 4% but less than or equal to 6% 42% 33%
More than 6% but less than or equal to 8% 23% 21%
More than 8% 10% 16%

How politically polarized will U.S. citizens be in 2024?

Forecast Count:
 13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 22, 2021 09:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)

How will the percentage of SMIC revenue from 28 nm chips or smaller change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
 25 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Mar 23, 2022 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)

How will the percentage of U.S residents who are concerned about how the government uses their data change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
 23 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Mar 25, 2022 03:54PM UTC
(2 years ago)

How will the number of Defense Innovation Unit transitions change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
 26 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 02, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Mar 28, 2022 12:20AM UTC
(2 years ago)

How will the number of Japanese Air Force responses to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
 26 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 15, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 06, 2022 05:03PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

As of Nov 12, 2023 11:26PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
 17 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 24, 2023 01:13PM UTC
(7 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 2% Oct 24, 2023 to Apr 24, 2024 Nov 24, 2023 1%

Will Imran Khan be re-elected as prime minister following Pakistan’s upcoming general election?

Forecast Count:
 25 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Feb 09, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jan 31, 2024 11:04PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 0%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

As of Apr 22, 2024 09:06PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
 16 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 07, 2024 08:48PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Apr 7, 2024 to Oct 7, 2024 May 7, 2024 3%
No 99% Apr 7, 2024 to Oct 7, 2024 May 7, 2024 97%

Will the Global Protest Tracker record a significant antigovernment protest involving 10,000 or more participants in Thailand between April 2023 and April 2024?

Forecast Count:
 33 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(18 days ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 24, 2024 09:44PM UTC
(24 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 0%
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