INFER Public

Will China send a daily record number of military planes into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) next month?

As of Dec 2, 2021 09:39PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Question Ends:
Dec 31, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 02, 2021 09:39PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of the continental U.S. will be experiencing severe drought or worse on 22 February 2022?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Feb 22, 2022 09:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 05, 2022 09:32PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 33.0		Answer was incorrect
Between 33.0 and 35.5, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 35.5 but less than 36.5		Answer was correct
Between 36.5 and 39.0, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 39.0		Answer was incorrect

When will 1 billion people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2022 12:00PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 24, 2022 06:48PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Before January 1, 2022		Answer was incorrect
Between January 1, 2022, and March 31, 2022		Answer was incorrect
Between April 1, 2022 and June 30, 2022		Answer was correct
Between July 1, 2022 and September 30, 2022		Answer was incorrect
Not before October 1, 2022		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of Arizona will be facing severe drought or worse on 5 July 2022?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 05, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 23, 2022 11:22PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 50%		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 50% but less than 60%		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 60% but less than 70%		Answer was correct
More than or equal to 70% but less than 80%		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 80%		Answer was incorrect

Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months?

As of Jul 24, 2022 04:09PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 24, 2022 04:09PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

How much will On Running earn in net sales from shoes in Q4 2022?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 21, 2022 01:09AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 300 million CHF		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 300 million CHF but less than 350 million CHF		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 350 million CHF		Answer was correct

By 31 December 2022, will Impossible Foods announce a date for their IPO?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 14, 2022 02:21AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

From April 2022 through March 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Lebanon?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 14, 2022 02:22AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 200		Answer was correct
More than or equal to 200 but less than 400		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 400 but less than 600		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 600 but less than 800		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 800 but less than 1000		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 1000		Answer was incorrect

Will clashes between Chinese and Indian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities between 28 April 2022 and 1 April 2023?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2023 03:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 14, 2022 02:22AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 27, 2023 05:36PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

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