INFER Public

What will the 'Big 5' (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft) tech companies' average reputation ranking be in the 2022 Axios Harris poll?

Question Ends:
Feb 28, 2022 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 09, 2022 09:43PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30 (good reputation)		Answer was incorrect
Between 30 and 40, inclusive		Answer was correct
More than 40 but less than or equal to 50		Answer was incorrect
More than 50 but less than or equal to 60		Answer was incorrect
More than 60 (bad reputation)		Answer was incorrect

Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 31, 2022 11:59PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 24, 2022 11:16AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

When will the end of day closing value for the Russian Ruble against the US Dollar drop below 75 Rubles to 1 USD?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 15, 2022 02:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Before 1 April 2022		Answer was incorrect
Between 1 April 2022 and 30 April 2022, inclusive		Answer was correct
Between 1 May 2022 and 31 May 2022, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
Not before 1 June 2022		Answer was incorrect

Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 15, 2022 03:47PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 31, 2022 07:45AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

Will the U.S. President sign legislation which appropriates funds for the Advanced Packaging Manufacturing Program during FY'22?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 01, 2022 09:25AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
No, $0 appropriated		Answer was incorrect
More than $0 but less than $1 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to $1 billion but less than $2 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to $2 billion but less than $2.5 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to $2.5 billion		Answer was correct

Will the U.S. Congress pass a tax credit for semiconductor manufacturing or design before 1 January 2023?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 27, 2022 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, for both manufacturing and design		Answer was incorrect
Yes, for only manufacturing		Answer was correct
Yes, for only design		Answer was incorrect
No		Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months?

As of Sep 22, 2022 04:13PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 22, 2022 04:13PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of contributions to Github's "very high impact" AI projects will be from China in 2022?

You quit this question on Nov 1, 2022 11:04AM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit.

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 18, 2022 10:25AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 22%		Answer was correct
More than or equal to 22% but less than 27%		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 27%		Answer was incorrect

Will Li Keqiang be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?

You quit this question on Nov 23, 2022 02:49AM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit.

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 23, 2022 08:05AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?

You quit this question on Nov 18, 2022 04:10AM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit.

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 05:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 23, 2022 08:07AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

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