michal_dubrawski

Michał Dubrawski
About:

Forecaster from Poland.
Author of the One-Armed Pundit Substack https://onearmedpundit.substack.com
Here is my profile on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/110217/
and on GJOpen:
https://www.gjopen.com/memberships/74890
My BlueSky account:
https://bsky.app/profile/mdubrawski.bsky.social

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Forecasted Questions
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Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months?

As of Sep 2, 2022 10:45PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Aug 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 02, 2022 10:45PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2023 05:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 10, 2022 11:09PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was correct

By 31 December 2022, will the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company announce plans to build a semiconductor fab in Europe?

Forecast Count:
 13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 27, 2022 10:08PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?

Forecast Count:
 10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Feb 13, 2023 06:18AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month?

As of Mar 26, 2023 01:30PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
 12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Feb 26, 2023 01:30PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will a European country announce that they are sending fighter jets to Ukraine by 30 April 2023?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 May 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Mar 16, 2023 03:08PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was correct

Will Microsoft's AI-powered “new Bing” be available to the public by 30 April 2023?

Forecast Count:
 11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 May 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Mar 31, 2023 02:02PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was correct

Will Russia successfully launch a moon mission on or before 1 Sep 2023?

Forecast Count:
 22 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Aug 31, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(9 months ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 20, 2023 09:01AM UTC
(9 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Nov 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(7 months ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 11, 2023 08:14PM UTC
(7 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in the next month?

As of Dec 22, 2023 01:40PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Nov 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 22, 2023 01:40PM UTC
(6 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes Answer was correct
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