Forecasted Questions
Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2023 03:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Apr 01, 2023 03:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 31, 2022 04:29PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Mar 31, 2022 04:29PM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | Answer was incorrect | |||
Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month?
As of Apr 30, 2022 04:34PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 31, 2022 04:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Mar 31, 2022 04:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | Answer was incorrect | |||||
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 01, 2022 09:27PM UTC
(2 years ago)
May 01, 2022 09:27PM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | Answer was incorrect | |||
Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2023 03:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Apr 01, 2023 03:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 22, 2022 06:54PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Sep 22, 2022 06:54PM UTC
(1 year ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes, 25+ in Georgia, but not in Moldova | Answer was incorrect | |||
| Yes, 25+ in Moldova, but not in Georgia | Answer was incorrect | |||
| Yes, 25+ in Georgia and 25+ in Moldova | Answer was incorrect | |||
| No, 25+ in neither Georgia nor Moldova | Answer was correct | |||
From 1 August 2022 and 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 100 or more protest and riot-related fatalities in Brazil?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(10 months ago)
Aug 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(10 months ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 30, 2023 07:27PM UTC
(11 months ago)
Jun 30, 2023 07:27PM UTC
(11 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | Answer was incorrect | |||
What percentage of Ukrainian territory will be held by Russia in December 2023?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC
(6 months ago)
Dec 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC
(6 months ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 28, 2023 01:21PM UTC
(9 months ago)
Aug 28, 2023 01:21PM UTC
(9 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 7% | Answer was incorrect | |||
| More than or equal to 7% but less than 12% | Answer was incorrect | |||
| More than or equal to 12% but less than 17% | Answer was incorrect | |||
| More than or equal to 17% but less than 22% | Answer was correct | |||
| More than or equal to 22% | Answer was incorrect | |||
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(24 days ago)
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(24 days ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 28, 2023 01:21PM UTC
(9 months ago)
Aug 28, 2023 01:21PM UTC
(9 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | Answer was incorrect | |||