Forecasted Questions
Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 11, 2023 01:12AM UTC
(10 months ago)
Jul 11, 2023 01:12AM UTC
(10 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 25% | 2% | +23% | -3% |
| No | 75% | 98% | -23% | +3% |
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 11, 2023 02:50PM UTC
(10 months ago)
Jul 11, 2023 02:50PM UTC
(10 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | 12% | +38% | -40% |
| No | 50% | 88% | -38% | +40% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 25, 2023 11:30PM UTC
(10 months ago)
Jul 25, 2023 11:30PM UTC
(10 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 10% | 2% | +8% | +0% |
| Oman | 10% | 2% | +8% | -1% |
| Qatar | 20% | 2% | +18% | +1% |
| Saudi Arabia | 25% | 5% | +20% | +2% |
| Tunisia | 10% | 1% | +9% | -2% |
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 08, 2023 01:15AM UTC
(9 months ago)
Aug 08, 2023 01:15AM UTC
(9 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S-400 or S-500 missile system | 15% | 8% | +7% | -12% |
| Su-35 fighter jets | 5% | 11% | -6% | -5% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 17, 2023 11:23PM UTC
(9 months ago)
Aug 17, 2023 11:23PM UTC
(9 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 25% | 3% | +22% | -9% |
| No | 75% | 97% | -22% | +9% |