| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
The zero Covid policy is Xi Jinping's idea and he has already doubled down on it publicly more than once.
The party congress is happening now/has been happening and Xi has worked to remove opposition to him staying in power for a 3rd term.
He won't want to allow any perceived weakness/lack of control in the near future.
A Covid lockdown becomes so unpopular that there is mass arrest beyond just the city locked down and Xi relents in order to preserve order.
Why do you think you're right?
The pandemic made it much harder to coordinate lab-based efforts like iGEM, the decrease in the number of teams during 2020-2021-2022 is unsurprising.
I expect somewhat of a reversion to the pre-pandemic mean with the possibility of upside towards earlier (~2014) numbers of teams.
However, I think that is less likely than a number in the 40-80 range. iGEM teams are time-consuming to set up and coordinate, I don't think we are likely to an explosion of new entrants.
Why might you be wrong?
Universities decide iGEM isn't worth the time and the team counts stay low