Due to the current context it would be unlikely that Russia would decide to take such aggressive actions, we must wait for the global context
3.159552
Relative Brier Score
20
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 36 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 21 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1%
Estonia
1%
Latvia
1%
Lithuania
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
because it has projects to develop artificial intelligence and needs to establish strategic alliances with advanced countries in the field
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
Feb 27, 2024 to Feb 27, 2025
95%
No
Feb 27, 2024 to Feb 27, 2025
Because it is unlikely that they will be able to recover from the present conflict
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Es complicado que esto suceda, debido a la necesidad de microsoft por mantenerse a a vanguardia en el tema de la IA por lo que es más probable que se anuncien lineamiento establecidos para tener una ventaja estratégica sin buscar una reubicación en este momento.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
S-400 or S-500 missile system
20%
Su-35 fighter jets
because Russia is in a current conflict that requires its weapons, which is not likely to end soon. dividing the weapons would not be a smart move
Files
